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Algeria: Status quo ante

Algeria: Status quo ante

The continuing unrest poses a risk to overall economic activity and foreign investment. We are doubtful that the revamped hydrocarbons law will bear fruit anytime soon.
Iran: Hard-line victory by default

Iran: Hard-line victory by default

• Iran’s parliamentary elections on 21 February are set to be a shoo-in victory for conservative MPs, giving them a large majority of seats.
•	Lebanon has formed a new government primarily composed of appointees endorsed by Hezbollah-aligned parties and oligarchs.

Political Transition: A new normal

Lebanon has formed a new government primarily composed of appointees endorsed by Hezbollah-aligned parties and oligarchs.
Saudi Arabia Monitor

SAUDI ARABIA: BALANCED BUDGET WITHIN REACH

Strengthening the private sector and creating more jobs will remain key focus areas for the government in the next financial year.
Iran & Iraq: A deadly new crisis with the US

Iran & Iraq: A deadly new crisis with the US

We believe that de-escalation will continue following statements from both the Iranian and US leadership. Although both parties tentatively appear to be standing down, this could break down easily and retaliatory acts could resume.
EGYPT: AWAITING TRICKLE-DOWN

EGYPT: AWAITING TRICKLE-DOWN

Egypt’s economic growth outlook remains favourable, but sustained reform implementation will be critical if the benefits are to trickle down to the average citizen.
MENA-India: Strategically driven, historically bound

MENA-India: Strategically driven, historically bound

Our regional theme this quarter analyses growing relations between the GCC and India with a focus on energy and merchandise trade, FDI and remittances. We also highlight opportunities for scaling up.
QATAR: WHAT DOESN'T KILL YOU MAKES YOU STRONGER

QATAR: WHAT DOESN'T KILL YOU MAKES YOU STRONGER

Qatar's economy has not only, as we expected, successfully absorbed the shocks from its neighbours’ boycott two years ago, it has strengthened -- particularly in banking and foreign reserves.
IRAQ: GROWTH RECOVERY DESPITE STRUCTURAL WOES

IRAQ: GROWTH RECOVERY DESPITE STRUCTURAL WOES

Higher oil output should boost growth, but structural vulnerabilities, particularly high unemployment and a growing population, are being left unattended by the absence of any major legislative action.
LIBYA: ECONOMICALLY DAMAGING STALEMATE AT BEST, SUSTAINED VIOLENCE AT WORST

LIBYA: ECONOMICALLY DAMAGING STALEMATE AT BEST, SUSTAINED VIOLENCE AT WORST

The IMF expects 2019 real GDP at 4.3% based on oil production at around 1 Mb/d. But such growth will be difficult to attain in a country in conflict and with the oil sector subject to constant supply disruptions.
IRAN: DOWN, BUT NOT OUT

IRAN: DOWN, BUT NOT OUT

Protests in neighbouring Iraq have challenged Iran’s influence in that country. Initially, demonstrations were over local grievances, but this has morphed into a protest against Iranian intervention.
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